2024 saw yet another Mediterranean summer characterized by extreme climate and weather events. From waterspouts and wildfires to heatwaves, cyclones and floods, researchers are investigating the causes of these changes, how to better predict them, and what we need to adapt to the changes that they bring.
“The data is saying what we have felt on our skin for the past few summers,” says CMCC researcher Giulia Bonino, as another record breaking summer in the Mediterranean unwinds. A summer that has left many wondering whether extreme weather events in the Mediterranean are simply the new normal.
“On July 20, 2024, marine temperatures reached anomalies of 6°C due to a marine heatwave,” says Bonino, whose recent CMCC webinar centered on unraveling the challenges associated with studying these extreme events. “Since the early 1980s, the Mediterranean Sea has been warming at approximately 0.4°C per decade, which is faster than the global ocean average. This warming is leading to more frequent and severe marine heatwaves, especially in the last 20 years.”
Bonino’s research focuses on investigating both the increased frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean and the challenges associated with understanding their underlying drivers, forecasting their future occurrences and assessing their impacts.
Monthly global surface air temperature anomalies (°C) relative to 1850–1900 from January 1940 to July 2024, plotted as time series for each year. 2024 is shown with a thick red line, 2023 with a thick orange line, and all other years with thin grey lines. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service /ECMWF.
Rising marine temperatures are a critical issue as they come with wide-ranging ecological and socioeconomic impacts. As this correlation has become increasingly clear, there has been a growing interest in studying the impacts of climate change on marine environments so that we can better prepare for future changes.
From a scientific perspective, this involves, among other things, developing the know-how and technology to run models that quantify and forecast marine ecosystem impacts. An effort that is embodied in the EU funded project, of which CMCC is a partner, called ACTNOW, which develops solutions to halt the loss of biodiversity, restore and protect habitats and ecosystem processes, and safeguard the contributions of marine areas to human well-being.
Yet marine heatwaves are not the only extreme event affecting the Mediterranean region and they are better understood as a symptom of a larger trend. Natural disasters, such as wildfires, cyclones and flooding are also changing in both frequency and intensity with profound consequences.
A recent study, published in the journal Scientific Reports, looks at the co-occurring interplay between atmospheric heatwaves and droughts in southern Europe, and marine heatwaves in the East Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea, between 2001 and 2022. The results of the study reveal that severe wildfires in the Mediterranean region occurred in conjunction with periods of reduced precipitation, elevated air temperatures and heightened sea surface temperatures, highlighting the potential of considering both land-based atmospheric and marine conditions when exploring extreme events.
More: https://www.climateforesight.eu/articles/are-extreme-events-in-the-mediterranean-the-new-normal/